897
ACUS11 KWNS 081820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081819
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-082045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081819Z - 082045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS OR CLUSTERS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED. A WW IS
UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1815 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED INITIAL CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF AR OK AND TX WAS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUSED
ALONG A SLOW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/REMNANT MCV AND LOCAL TERRAIN
FEATURES, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMID A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS IS
SUPPORTING 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAK ASCENT EAST OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AID IN NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK (10-20 KT) SUGGESTING LITTLE IF
ANY STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY. THIS WILL FAVOR PULSE STORMS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERING WITHIN AREAS OF HIGHER STORM COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW/MCV AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
AR.
GIVEN THE MODE AND STRONG BUOYANCY, SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
BROADER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS UNLIKELY. SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN OCCASIONAL DAMAGING
GUST. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET AS BUOYANCY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE.
..LYONS/THOMPSON.. 07/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 34099846 35110012 36740032 37110000 36609815 36369490
35919414 35479332 35099124 34699111 34059153 33369291
33309533 33719768 34099846
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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