784
ACUS11 KWNS 082229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082229
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082229Z - 090030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS
ERODED ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION. AS STORMS TRACK SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
BUOYANCY, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
(AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED STORMS THAT
EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY LIMIT OVERALL STORM LONGEVITY AND COVERAGE.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 07/08/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39540332 39940351 40460383 40930387 41810376 42300370
42590346 42690322 42630256 42430215 41750189 41190176
40330134 39730091 39000084 38680116 38580194 38720257
39030300 39540332
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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