546
ACUS11 KWNS 091649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091649
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-091845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT WED JUL 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091649Z - 091845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD
EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IR AND MRMS IMAGERY ALL SHOW STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AMID CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE
APEX OF A BUOYANCY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN
PA. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR (AROUND 30 KNOTS) FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS. THE EXPECTATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS THAT A
MIX OF DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO
ONE OR MORE SHORT, BUT ORGANIZED, LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN PERSISTENT
BROAD-SCALE ASCENT, LIMITED CAPPING, AND STORM MOTIONS LARGELY
ALIGNED WITH THE ZONE OF INITIATION. AS SUCH, AN INITIAL THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC SEVERE WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY
A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS STORMS APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40517772 40627732 40617676 40487610 40247563 39947521
39657498 39187517 38857559 37597849 37497918 37507973
37568022 37928051 38468050 38908025 40517772
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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