262
ACUS11 KWNS 091727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091726
SCZ000-GAZ000-091930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091726Z - 091930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY BRIEF/ISOLATED; WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL GA INTO PORTIONS OF SC WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE AND ALONG A STRENGTHENING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS
COMES AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM INTO THE LOW 90S WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MORNING GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY DISPLAYED A 3-5 F
COOL AND DRY BIAS ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR TODAY, WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN INITIATION SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED AS WELL AS SBCAPE
VALUES UPWARDS OF 4000-5000 J/KG. OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON
THE ORDER OF 15 F SUGGEST THAT LCLS ARE LIKELY AT AROUND 1 KM AGL
WITH NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM. THIS
COMBINATION OF EXTREME BUOYANCY ATOP A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
DRY-ADIABATIC LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG, WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS (MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
40-60 MPH) THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK FLOW OVER THE REGION
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS PER REGIONAL VWPS) WILL FAVOR
DISORGANIZED MULTICELLS WITH LIMITED DURATION. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
SHORT-RANGE PREDICTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 32198060 31918100 31548123 31228136 30958153 30868198
31008235 31238274 31468310 31768330 32318335 33318296
34278211 34468175 34508139 34348035 34218002 34077982
33907972 33757972 32198060
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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