761
ACUS11 KWNS 091949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091948
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-092115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091948Z - 092115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE GUSTS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CU OVER EASTERN ID/SOUTHERN MT ARE INDICATING
ATTEMPTS AT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ATOP A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES ALREADY REACHING 9 C/KM IN SOME SPOTS,
WITH 500+ J/KG MLCAPE. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING TO 500 MB, WHICH IS BEING OVERSPREAD BY
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
(I.E. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS INDICATING SPEED SHEAR). ORGANIZED,
HIGH-BASED MULTICELLS SHOULD TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE GUST THREAT. IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE GUSTS, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 07/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 45111508 46501254 47021071 47090875 46540812 45790811
45150871 44900926 44541039 44241175 44011271 43841336
43811402 43871457 45111508
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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