684
ACUS11 KWNS 092331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092330
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-100100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL SD...AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...
VALID 092330Z - 100100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED/SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND EMBEDDED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498. WHILE
UNCERTAIN, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...TWO DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED
DEEPER CORES ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NE THIS EVENING -- WHERE PERIODIC SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE OCCURRING. WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND STRONG BUOYANCY/STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES HAVE
GENERALLY PROMOTED OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS WITH LIMITED LARGE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION UP TO THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS, THE STRONG BUOYANCY AND
LONG/GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS (AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR)
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SEVERE DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW AND SPORADIC
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CORES.
WHILE THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
PROMOTE EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY HIGHER FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SD INTO NORTHERN
NE -- AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAY TEND TO FOCUS OVER THIS GENERAL
REGION AMID SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. IF THIS EVOLUTION
CAN OCCUR, THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD INCREASE WITH TIME,
AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
..WEINMAN.. 07/09/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 46990014 46129975 45229956 44219951 43219932 41729957
41330009 41310092 41320168 41740205 43040179 44910166
46500184 47180102 47180049 46990014
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page