196
ACUS11 KWNS 100127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100126
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-100300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL SD...AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...500...
VALID 100126Z - 100300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498, 500
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SWATHS OF SEVERE WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MULTIPLE MCSS
TRAVERSING THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS TWO PRIMARY MCSS TRACKING
EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD/SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN MCS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A
SWATH OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, WITH MORE ISOLATED WIND REPORTS
WITH THE SOUTHERN MCS OVER NE. AS THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, EXTREMELY UNSTABLE INFLOW (SAMPLED BY THE
MODIFIED ABR 00Z SOUNDING), 30-40 KT OF LINE-ORTHOGONAL EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, AND A 30-KT LOW-LEVEL JET (PER VWP DATA) SHOULD SUPPORT THE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH MCSS WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNALLY COOLS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE SWATHS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS (SOME 75+ MPH POSSIBLE),
THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DISCRETE STORMS EVOLVING ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
..WEINMAN.. 07/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 45789993 46569991 46979960 46919872 46529809 45549789
43899803 42949831 42169876 41449955 41340017 41500089
41940110 42440074 43080005 44489998 45789993
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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