897
ACUS02 KWNS 100601
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON FRIDAY, FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
.. CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO MIDWEST
A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TO THE SOUTH, A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A DIFFUSE/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ONE OR MORE DECAYING MCSS SHOULD
BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA PERHAPS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE MCSS COULD POSE A
RESIDUAL RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGH THE MORNING.
DURING THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MULTIPLE INITIATION POINTS ACROSS THE AREA,
THE PRECISE LOCATIONS OF WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MORNING CONVECTION.
AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. A SECOND AREA
OF INITIATION IS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE WEST ALONG THE DIFFUSE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA OR NORTHEAST KANSAS, PERHAPS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA. IN BOTH AREAS, STRONG
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AN EXISTING BOUNDARY, A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WITH TIME, EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL GROW
UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE EAST AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
.. HIGH PLAINS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT PLAINS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.
.. EASTERN US
A WARM, MOIST, WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EAST. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF PRONOUNCED FOCI FOR INITIATION,
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN IN
PRECEDING DAYS. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
..MARSH.. 07/10/2025
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