494
ACUS11 KWNS 100639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100639
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-100845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NE...WESTERN IA...SOUTHWEST MN...EXTREME
NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100639Z - 100845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM EASTERN NE
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN. RECENT MEASURED GUSTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN SUBSEVERE IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE, AND INCREASING
MLCINH WITH TIME AND DECREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER,
SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG) AND A
WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL COULD STILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS QLCS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
POSSIBLE. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER EMBEDDED CORES, AND ALSO WITH
MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE.
..DEAN/GUYER.. 07/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 43949643 44109534 43989433 43149378 41589347 40669452
39779589 39799701 40239868 40399846 40579800 41299665
42199618 43229634 43949643
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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