806
ACUS48 KWNS 100818
SWOD48
SPC AC 100816
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY BE ZONAL ACROSS MUCH COUNTRY, WITH THE GREATEST HEIGHT
GRADIENT FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW REGIME
WILL AMPLIFY THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THEN NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH
INTER-MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES THE ABILITY TO IDENTIFY 15%
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SURFACE-COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT, HOWEVER,
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY WILL BE STRONGLY
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS' CONVECTION. AS SUCH, WHEN COUPLED WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF ANY MID-LEVEL WAVE, PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO IDENTIFY UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..MARSH.. 07/10/2025
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