312
ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO, AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MID-AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING ON FRIDAY
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
..LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REMNANTS OF A PROBABLE SEVERE MCS ON D1 OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY
SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN LOWER MI AT 12Z
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, THE COMPOSITE MCV/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A COMPACT BELT
OF ENHANCED 700-500 MB WINDS WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG TRAILING
OUTFLOWS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. LARGE BUOYANCY WILL PROMOTE INITIAL
SEVERE HAIL TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
WHETHER A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WILL DEVELOP WITH A GREATER SEVERE
WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON MESOSCALE PLACEMENT
OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COINCIDENT WITH THE COMPACT FLOW
ENHANCEMENT. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, FOCUSED ALONG
WHEREVER THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SETS UP.
..UPPER MIDWEST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MN TO EASTERN SD. DESPITE AMPLE BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MID-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED WEST OF
THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITIVE-TILT ORIENTATION
AND COMPACTNESS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
..CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODEST MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE HIGH PLAINS AMID A MODERATELY BUOYANT
AIRMASS. POST-FRONTAL, UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD YIELD A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS IN THE SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO VICINITY. ADEQUATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND
MULTICELL CLUSTERING IN EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO MID-EVENING FRIDAY.
..EAST
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM QC TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK HEIGHT RISES/WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND LOWER PW VALUES RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS WILL TEMPER WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK WHERE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF PULSE STORMS IS EXPECTED.
..GRAMS.. 07/10/2025
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