503
ACUS11 KWNS 101755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101755
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA INTO A SMALL PART
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101755Z - 102030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOUDS/SOUTH OF THE MCV, WITH HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO RISK. THE AREA
IS BEING MONITORED, BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
DISCUSSION...A PROMINENT MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE. MEANWHILE,
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE IN CYCLONIC FASHION.
AREAS OF LOW TO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE LIKELY EXIST AROUND THE MCV,
THOUGH ONLY A WEAK PATTERN OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING OVER MUCH OF IA SOUTH OF THE MCV
IS LEADING TO EXPANDING CU FIELDS, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA. CAM SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE, BUT
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT STORMS, PERHAPS SUPERCELLS, COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER. LCLS WILL BE LOW, AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO,
GIVEN A SUPERCELL.
..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 07/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 41269044 41529183 42099335 42469488 42789510 43209495
43549402 43639313 43569206 43289097 42879024 42268981
41778971 41318994 41269044
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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