696
ACUS11 KWNS 101941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101941
NEZ000-KSZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101941Z - 102145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN OK ACROSS KS AND INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE NEAR 100 F,
WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE ONLY ONLY MIXED DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
F.
GIVEN THE HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, STRONG WIND GUSTS
APPEAR PROBABLE. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUGGEST SOME
CELLULAR MODE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MIXED-MODE
SEVERE APPEARS MOST LIKELY.
..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 07/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38060147 39230067 40340004 40979977 41329961 41489934
41559895 41379862 41079852 40349859 39689880 38899918
38159992 37420083 37200155 37240188 37460195 38060147
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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