780
ACUS11 KWNS 101944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101943
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101943Z - 102145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY HIGHER ACROSS CO, AND MAY REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE
SHORT-TERM.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS SLOWLY INCREASED OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL CO. OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON
THE ORDER OF 40-50 F HINT THAT VERY DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE IN
PLACE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE BUOYANCY
IS FAIRLY LIMITED (MLCAPE AROUND 250-500 J/KG), LCLS BETWEEN 3-4 KM
WILL FAVOR VERY STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS VIA EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY, AND VELOCITY IMAGERY FROM KFTG IS
SHOWING 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN
TANDEM WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. EXPANDING COLD POOLS
COUPLED WITH 25-35 KNOT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THAT COULD POSE A MORE
ROBUST WIND THREAT WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 80 MPH. IN
GENERAL, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS CO DUE
TO ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT, THOUGH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH
INTO NORTHEAST NM. WATCH ISSUANCE IS PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AND THE SEVERE WIND THREAT)
INCREASES.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 07/10/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38310506 40210503 40740455 40890400 40960352 40970311
40880261 40690210 40350148 40020119 39280121 38410167
37250255 35580361 35270394 35110447 35120476 35310499
35720504 38310506
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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