665
ACUS11 KWNS 110544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110544
ILZ000-IAZ000-110715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...
VALID 110544Z - 110715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ESTABLISHED BOWING CLUSTER WITH A HISTORY OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THE KDMX
VWP SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER HAS STARTED TO OUTRUN THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES FARTHER
EAST. HOWEVER, 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MUCAPE IS PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THIS CLUSTER WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
(APPARENT BY LEAD CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN
ILLINOIS). CONFIDENCE IN THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING FARTHER EAST
INTO ILLINOIS IS LOW GIVEN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY, ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/FORCING TO NECESSITATE A SMALL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 07/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41859412 41969294 41919166 41889065 41659027 41199055
40859096 40899157 40929208 40909244 40949361 41059404
41859412
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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