573
ACUS11 KWNS 111718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111718
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA INTO NORTHERN
MO...WESTERN IL...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111718Z - 111845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH A
THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES, SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND, AND HAIL. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA. THIS CONVECTION IS HELPING TO
REINFORCE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO, WITH
A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH (WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA) MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.
RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING OF A RICHLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME
INITIAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM CLUSTERING
POSSIBLE WITH TIME. FAVORABLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL
WITH ANY INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH
TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY NOTABLE UPSCALE GROWTH. WATCH ISSUANCE
IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO COVER THESE THREATS.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
OAX...
LAT...LON 40079261 40129363 40139517 40379529 40819530 41199521
41569442 42409187 42859055 42808978 42428927 41798917
40538955 40049020 39989068 39979113 40039205 40079261
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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