435
ACUS11 KWNS 112016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112016
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112016Z - 112215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE
A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. A WW IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG SURFACE HEATING WAS
RESULTING IN GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CUMULUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN OK. AS CONTINUED HEATING AND WEAK
ASCENT FROM A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE AREA, A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOCUSED LARGELY ALONG THE FRONT, MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A COMPLEX MODE OF MULTI CELL CLUSTERS. 1500-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE OBSERVED FROM THE 18Z LMN/AMA SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT
TRANSIENT STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PROMINENT INVERTED-V
STRUCTURE SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING GUSTS.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RECENT CAM DATA SUGGEST STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR FIRST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS BEFORE SPREADING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. AS STORM CLUSTERS
AND OUTFLOW BEGIN TO AMALGAMATE, THE RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE LIMITED STORM
ORGANIZATION A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 07/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37019997 37999749 38949637 39179588 38999514 38519471
36849567 35339851 34950006 36400017 37019997
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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