164
ACUS11 KWNS 112036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112036
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-112230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112036Z - 112230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING. A WW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING/OCCURRING ACROSS
THE HIGHER-TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN WY AND NORTHERN CO ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. LOCATED WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME, INHIBITION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT FORM SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GRADUAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MATURATION. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NE. 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS AND LONGER-LIVED CLUSTERS.
WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, HAIL IS EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
INITIAL STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING
INHIBITION AND RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. STORMS REMAINING CLOSE TO
THE TERRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, A SEVERE WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.
..LYONS/MOSIER.. 07/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39450160 39360215 39130295 39010388 38890475 39210550
39950593 41550639 41700477 41470282 41140177 39450160
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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