104
ACUS11 KWNS 112053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112053
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-112230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI...NORTHWEST
IL...FAR NORTHERN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 505...
VALID 112053Z - 112230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 505 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2045 UTC, A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IA, WITH THE KDVN/KDMX RADARS
DEPICTING A COMPACT BUT INTENSIFYING VELOCITY SIGNATURE ACROSS
BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. THIS BOWING SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LINE-EMBEDDED
TORNADO AND ISOLATED HAIL.
ELSEWHERE, MULTIPLE DISCRETE CELLS ARE ONGOING FROM SOUTHWEST WI
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND MODESTLY ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY COULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE CELLS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL.
SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO A LARGER PORTION OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI, AND DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE
IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/11/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41289472 41569262 42639194 42889041 42888944 42428875
41718893 41188986 40369129 40309263 40309402 40329457
40459468 40799456 41289472
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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