786
ACUS48 KWNS 120731
SWOD48
SPC AC 120730
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON DAYS 4-5/TUE-WED. GIVEN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, RESULTING IN LOW
PREDICTABILITY.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AROUND DAYS 5-6/WED-THU AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST RIDGE. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL REMAIN MODEST, AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES NOT WELL RESOLVED AT THIS TIME SCALE.
..LEITMAN.. 07/12/2025
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