781
ACUS02 KWNS 121721
SWODY2
SPC AC 121719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
NORTHWARD INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
..FROM CENTRAL VA/NC NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC, WITH MODEST
MIDLEVEL WINDS GLANCING PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. VEERING LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWING FRONT, AND AS SUCH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER
SOUTH, INTO CENTRAL VA/NC, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS HEATING
OCCURS, WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE LOW-END IN NATURE, SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ON THE LOCAL LEVEL, FROM VA/NC NORTHWARD INTO NY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH, THOUGH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED.
..LOWER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
EARLY DAY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MO,
OK AND AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. MODELS INDICATE
OUTFLOWS MAY STABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP. THE STRONGEST
HEATING WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM WESTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST TX AND
THIS SHOULD AID SPORADIC STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 07/12/2025
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