348
ACUS11 KWNS 122029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122029
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST
OH...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122029Z - 122200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A COMPACT STORM CLUSTER IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND ADJACENT WESTERN KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
WELL-ORGANIZED, IT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED NEAR-SEVERE
GUSTS, AND ALSO HAS A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD POOL. STRONG DOWNSTREAM
HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF A PROPAGATING COLD
POOL, SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM CLUSTER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OH,
AND ALSO ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW INTO FAR WESTERN KY INTO
SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST MO. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, GIVEN FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY AND LARGE PW.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/12/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 38638657 40088580 40598312 40288187 39688168 37948421
37718455 36868739 36818938 37018986 37378996 37488855
37668728 38038673 38638657
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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