158
ACUS02 KWNS 130508
SWODY2
SPC AC 130506
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/MT ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ATTENDANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MT/ND. MODEST MOISTURE AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL NONETHELESS SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALSO WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR (NEAR 25 KT). INCREASING ASCENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS INITIALLY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. STRONG GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..MID-ATLANTIC INTO FL
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL BE IN
PLACE. WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS, WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST AMID STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK, GENERALLY 15-20 KT OR LESS. NEVERTHELESS, SPORADIC
STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 07/13/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page