020
ACUS11 KWNS 131723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131723
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-132000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA INTO PARTS OF NY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
VT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131723Z - 132000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KALB AND KBUF DEPICTED VERY RICH
MOISTURE, WITH PWS IN THE 1.8 - 2 INCH RANGE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE WEAK, BUT STRONG HEATING OF THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT
IN MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
TIME WITHIN THE MINIMALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. GENERALLY WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR (15-20 KT ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY AND 20-25 KT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY) WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER,
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE PW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND SMALL OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STRONGER PRE-CONVECTIVE HEATING OCCURS.
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF
STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BEGIN TO SUPPORT AREAS OF MORE
CONCENTRATED WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/13/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 43007429 40867699 39777744 39787832 39827896 40907914
41647932 42247918 42527870 42687845 43067773 43437624
44627554 44827545 45057454 44987296 44547318 43007429
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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