616
ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131941
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-132115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA...CENTRAL MD...THE
EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131941Z - 132115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS MD AND EASTERN VA HAS
GENERATED A WESTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW APPROACHING CENTRAL VA.
MEANWHILE, OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING
OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (PW AROUND 2 INCHES) HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE
INCREASING ABOVE 3000 J/KG IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
THE LARGE PW AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS, BOTH WITH STORMS ALONG THE
WESTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW, AND THE STORMS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OUTFLOW COLLISIONS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF UPTICKS IN
STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/13/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37087924 37287915 38457862 39607818 39677813 39657761
39627756 38717763 37807778 37437785 36807772 36917839
36877871 36787934 37087924
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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