596
ACUS11 KWNS 141720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141720
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...VT/NH AND WESTERN ME INTO EASTERN NY...WESTERN
MA/CT...NORTHEAST PA...AND NORTHERN NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141720Z - 141945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FROM WESTERN VT/ME INTO EASTERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA. CONTINUED
HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE INCREASING
ABOVE 1500 J/KG, AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN PA APPROACHES THE
REGION. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY, BUT MODESTLY ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION.
RELATIVELY LARGE PW (GENERALLY 1.5 - 1.8 INCHES) MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS, WHILE A FEW
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST
CELLS/CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...
LAT...LON 41517675 41807718 42147708 42557614 43477414 45097322
45227158 46866999 47106872 46856832 45636945 45176986
44547034 43827094 42897169 42347226 41497320 40547430
40797495 41127576 41517675
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page