045
ACUS11 KWNS 141820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141820
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MD/DC...NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA...THE EASTERN
WV PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST PA...FAR WESTERN NJ...NORTHERN DE,
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141820Z - 142045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WIND
DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST (PW
NEAR/ABOVE 2 INCHES) ENVIRONMENT IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHEAST PA INTO MD AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA. MLCAPE IS ALREADY
ABOVE 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AND MAY INCREASE TO
NEAR/ABOVE 3000 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE PRECONVECTIVE HEATING CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL PA, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT RECENTLY NOTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL VA. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WITH TIME, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PA.
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(GENERALLY 15-25 KT) WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME
EXTENT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST INITIAL CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
WITH TIME, CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS MAY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE
EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS THAT WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. ANY SUCH CLUSTER MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
SWATHS OF MORE CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE,
DEPENDING ON TRENDS REGARDING CLUSTERING OF STORMS WITH TIME.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 07/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37827936 39877798 41067595 40757500 40237500 39597536
38457668 37717771 37387870 37827936
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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