171
FNUS22 KWNS 141956
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO
WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WAS
MAINTAINED FOR THIS UPDATE, WITH ONLY SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO HIGHLIGHTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN ID
AND FAR WESTERN WY GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. AN
ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST AND ATTENDANT
INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT FASTER THUNDERSTORM MOTIONS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NV TUESDAY, WITH
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORIES OF 20-30 MPH. THIS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL
RESIDENCE TIME AND INCREASE LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY OVER DRY
FUELS.
..GREAT BASIN
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN NEVADA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AN
ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE WEST WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NV.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH HIGHER WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AMID DRY FUELS. HIGHER WINDS UNDER A
SIMILARLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NV, SOUTHWESTERN UT AND THE
ARIZONA STRIP.
..WILLIAMS.. 07/14/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0144 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEVADA, WESTERN UTAH, NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO.
..EASTERN NEVADA, WESTERN UTAH, NORTHERN ARIZONA
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE ARIZONA STRIP, WINDS MAY
BE AT OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, ONGOING FIRES WITH
A HISTORY OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WARRANT INCLUSION INTO THE
CRITICAL AREA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
WESTERN COLORADO, UTAH, FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO, WESTERN WYOMING, AND
NEVADA. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, PWS GENERALLY AROUND 0.25-0.50" ARE
EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE REMAINING PRIMARILY MID-LEVEL WITH DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS BELOW. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION AMID FASTER STORM MOTIONS WITH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. FUELS WITHIN THESE REGIONS ARE
RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION AND AS SUCH AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA WAS
MAINTAINED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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