455
ACUS11 KWNS 150755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150755
MNZ000-150930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...
VALID 150755Z - 150930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF ELEVATED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 40 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
(SAMPLED BY THE KFSD VWP) ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A RESERVOIR OF
STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THESE STORMS. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FUEL FOR CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THEY DRIFT SOUTH. STORM MODE IS
THE GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME, BUT 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND
2500-3500 J/KG MUCAPE WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SOME
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
..BENTLEY.. 07/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 47719298 47399311 47259343 47109425 47229536 47349555
48039557 48359538 48349529 48229329 47999307 47719298
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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