864
ACUS11 KWNS 151749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151748
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151748Z - 151945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COLD
FRONT, WITH CORRIDORS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
SPORADIC HAIL.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST SD, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
OVER CENTRAL MN. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT AND
LOW, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN CLOUD
BREAKS, AND WARMING VIA ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO A
LONG DURATION DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER NORTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI, WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. A GENERAL INCREASE
IN STORMS IS ANTICIPATED EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS MORE OF THE AREA BECOMES FULLY UNCAPPED.
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH INITIAL CELL DEVELOPMENT, BUT OVERALL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS THAN ABOUT 30 KT. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE/ELONGATE ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE MIDLEVEL WINDS. WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 850 MB, THIS SUGGESTS A LINE OF STORMS PROPAGATING IN AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 07/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558
45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122
47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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