142
ACUS11 KWNS 151958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151958
SDZ000-NEZ000-152230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151958Z - 152230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL ERUPT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EAST-CENTRAL SD INTO
WESTERN NE AND FAR EASTERN CO, WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING AND BUILDING CU FIELDS ALONG
THE FRONT AND NEAR THE LOW, AND THIS IS WHERE INITIATION WILL OCCUR.
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS A MIDLEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS, MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH MLCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG.
MODEST WESTERLIES ALOFT COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS. A FEW
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, BUT AN
EVOLUTION TO SEVERE MCS IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 07/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43909938 44009862 43929795 43359777 42379803 41449862
41409863 40849917 40470006 40460161 41180210 41870224
42090219 42560171 43200035 43759964 43909938
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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