324
ACUS11 KWNS 160056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160056
WYZ000-160230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS PF CENTRAL WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515...
VALID 160056Z - 160230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A CONTINUING
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND EAST OF LANDER TOWARD AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF CASPER THROUGH 8-9 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINTAINING
INTENSITY EAST OF LANDER AND APPEARS SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT
INFLOW EMANATING FROM A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGEST THIS ENVIRONMENT EXTENDS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS
AND SOUTHWEST OF CASPER, INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW IS WEAK, THIS IS
PARTIALLY DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING FROM LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES, WITH RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
AROUND CASPER INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELDS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..KERR.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 43050782 43240636 42490555 42080624 42550726 43050782
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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