572
ACUS11 KWNS 160119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160119
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514...
VALID 160119Z - 160245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AS IT
PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 9-11 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE OF NOTABLE
EMBEDDED MESO-BETA SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. ONE ASSOCIATED
SOUTHEASTWARD COLD POOL SURGE IS ONGOING ACROSS/SOUTHEAST OF THE
YANKTON SD VICINITY, AT A FORWARD PROPAGATION AROUND 30 KT. TO THE
SOUTHWEST, ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD SURGE ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF
BROKEN BOW NE IS A BIT SLOWER, AROUND 20 KT, BUT THE NOSE OF A
NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (IN EXCESS OF 30 AROUND 850
MB) MAY BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THIS PORTION OF THE QLCS BY 03-04Z.
INFLOW OF SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY
SIZABLE CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME, AND PERHAPS A BIT BEYOND.
..KERR.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 41259929 42069883 42109859 42729694 43849689 43699553
42899504 41149703 40319902 40800064 41259929
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