751
ACUS11 KWNS 160345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160345
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...
VALID 160345Z - 160545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN GENERALLY
WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, WHICH
COULD STILL SPORADICALLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT-2 AM CDT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA VICINITY. IT IS NOT
CLEAR THAT A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM, BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES (2-4+ MB 2-HOURLY) HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED WITHIN THE COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING THE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS THE
NORFOLK, COLUMBUS, GRAND ISLAND, HASTINGS, KEARNEY AND LEXINGTON
VICINITIES OF NEBRASKA. THE MORE INTENSE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME A BIT MORE DISPLACED ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF
THE GUST FRONT, AND NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED WITHIN FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION, ON THE NOSE A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
DECOUPLING.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING, COUPLED WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER NEAR SURFACE
UPDRAFT INFLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, A CORRIDOR OF
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLANKING THE MISSOURI RIVER VICINITY MIGHT
PROMOTE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO 05-07Z TIME FRAME, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
CONTINUING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40769781 41249726 41469664 41779617 42099594 41709482
40689486 40239492 39579573 39949661 40029745 40139852
40769781
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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