200
ACUS48 KWNS 160747
SWOD48
SPC AC 160745
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
..DISCUSSION
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN PERIOD. SOME ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM. WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE FEATURES, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING WHERE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP, PRECLUDING
PROBABILITIES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE NORTHWEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MAY EJECT
FROM THE NORTHWEST UPPER SHORTWAVE AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, POSING SOME INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AN OUTLOOK
AREA AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 07/16/2025
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