577
ACUS02 KWNS 161736
SWODY2
SPC AC 161735
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS ALSO FROM VIRGINIA
WESTWARD TOWARD KANSAS. ISOLATED CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE.
..NORTHEAST
A WEAK LEAD WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AN INFLUX OF THETA-E AROUND 850 MB WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE, A STRONGER WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SPEED MAX NOSING INTO NORTHERN NY AND INTO MAINE LATE. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES PRIMARILY DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH DRYING
PUSHING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN PA AND NY. HOWEVER, ASCENT WILL
DEEPEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EASTERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST OVERALL LIFT FROM NORTHERN
NY AT 21Z INTO MA BY 03Z.
MITIGATING OVERALL POTENTIAL WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK LOW TO MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES, WHICH MAY MINIMIZE UPDRAFT STRENGTH, WHILE SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT, WHICH MAY
COUNTERACT THE LESS THAN MARGINAL THERMO PROFILES. INCREASING MEAN
WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONG TO DAMAGING
GUSTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
OVERALL, CAM SIGNALS ARE MIXED, AND MODEL TRENDS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED GOING FORWARD IN THE FORECAST CYCLE.
..KS...OZARKS...OH VALLEY INTO VA
MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC, ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NY/NEW ENGLAND. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED EAST/WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY, WITH
2000+ MLCAPE FROM THE DELMARVA WESTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK. CLUSTERS OF AFTERNOON STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THIS ZONE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
FROM WESTERN VA INTO WV AND KY, AND FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN
KS. LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE MOST LIKELY.
..FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODELS SIGNALS ARE MIXED BUT APPEAR TO INDICATE A THREAT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL DEVELOPING ALONG THE MT/CANADA BORDER
AROUND 00Z, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR SOUTHWEST ND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ZONE WILL BECOME HEATED DURING THE DAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MT, AND BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE. A PLUME OF HIGHER
THETA-E WILL DEVELOP AROUND 850 MB FROM EASTERN WY/MT INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH MOISTENING THROUGH 700 MB AS WELL. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL THUS SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF ISOLATED CELLS
PRODUCING HAIL OVERNIGHT.
..JEWELL.. 07/16/2025
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