533
ACUS11 KWNS 161841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161841
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-162045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHEAST UTAH...NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 161841Z - 162045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING GUST ARE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1830 UTC, VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SLOPE AND SOUTHERN WY. FOCUSED LARGELY ACROSS
THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN CO RANGES, DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BROAD-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PASSES OVERHEAD.
AS THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND TOWARD SCATTERED COVERAGE, A FEW OF THE
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR A MIX OF CLUSTERS AND
SUPERCELLS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER SOME HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY WEAKLY ROTATING CELLS.
WHILE IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE STRONGER CELLS TO ORGANIZE,
OUTFLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL BUOYANCY IS MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS AND SOME SEVERE RISK.
GIVEN THE LIMITED BUOYANCY A WW IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH SEVERE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 42180884 41780671 40340601 39940695 39250961 39811094
40531137 41441026 42180884
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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