068
ACUS11 KWNS 161908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161908
ILZ000-162115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518...
VALID 161908Z - 162115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
WIND SHIFT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WIND SHIFT HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, THESE WARM AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS SUPPORT MLCAPE
AROUND 2500 J/KG.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN IL, WHERE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. FARTHER
SOUTH, UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND DURATION MAY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
STRONGER SHEAR. EVEN SO, GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY IN PLACE, UPDRAFTS COULD STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WATER-LOADED STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
..MOSIER.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 42118909 42428853 42308782 41638767 40198852 39168996
39539062 40658968 42118909
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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