865
ACUS11 KWNS 162230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162229
KSZ000-170000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162229Z - 170000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. ISOLATED
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR, BUT LIMITED STORM
ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS, WHERE STRONG
BUOYANCY (MLCAPE > 3000 J/KG) AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
COINCIDE. ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING, WHERE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE
OUTFLOW GUSTS. HOWEVER, STORM INTENSITY/DURATION SHOULD BOTH BE
LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR (ONLY MODEST ENHANCEMENT
TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT). THUS, A WATCH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
..THOMPSON/HART.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 39129825 39099780 38889759 38729775 38649830 38289934
37530017 37650034 37900036 38270022 38559987 38949907
39129825
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