554
ACUS11 KWNS 162329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162328
INZ000-ILZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162328Z - 170030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA, WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER SEGMENTS
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS 40-50 MPH. THIS IS ONGOING WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION REMAINS WEAK. OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE THREAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO
LOCALIZED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..THORNTON.. 07/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38838905 39388821 40108715 40078619 39698588 38798606
38288678 38108745 38208845 38408909 38838905
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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