650
ACUS11 KWNS 170001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170000
MIZ000-170100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170000Z - 170100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING EAST MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MICHIGAN. OVERALL, THIS ACTIVITY IS
REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AS THEY MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE AIR MASS ACROSS MICHIGAN REMAINS FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION AROUND
30-40 KTS. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF STORMS WILL POSE A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT MOVING INLAND. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
..THORNTON/HART.. 07/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43708651 44228640 44848595 45348546 45688465 45508388
45128355 44558356 44018352 43408406 43118468 42938605
43708651
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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