328
ACUS11 KWNS 172040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172040
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-172245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VT...NH...AND ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521...
VALID 172040Z - 172245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF VT, NH, AND ME.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS (I.E. 18Z) AT CAR AND GYX
SAMPLED A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE CAR SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR (I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 43 KT), WHILE NOTABLY
WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 KT) WAS
SAMPLED FARTHER SOUTH AT GYX. THIS VARIANCE IN SHEAR MATCHES
PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS AND CONTINUES TO PLACE THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK ACROSS NORTHERN ME.
AN INITIALLY MORE CELLULAR MODE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE
CELL-IN-LINE MODE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. EVEN SO, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STRONG DOWNBURSTS REMAIN THE GREATEST RISK,
PARTICULARLY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (I.E. 0-1 KM 15 TO 20 KT) TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
TORNADO AS WELL.
..MOSIER.. 07/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
LAT...LON 47396939 47456844 47176770 46526776 44617002 43937193
44507307 45477125 46517019 47396939
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page