410
ACUS11 KWNS 172205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172204
COZ000-NMZ000-180000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHEAST CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172204Z - 180000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO NORTHEAST NM.
THE STRONGEST ONGOING ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE, BUT SOME TENDENCY FOR STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS EXPECTED WITH TIME. MLCAPE OF UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ROBUST
CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK, LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CO INTO
NORTHEAST NM, TO THE NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.
WEAKLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KT MAY
SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES, AND SOME CLUSTERING
OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME.
WHILE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM, ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY STORM
CLUSTERING AND OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION OCCURS WITH TIME.
..DEAN/HART.. 07/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35660334 34870354 34510434 34570496 34700530 34820546
35370534 36670527 37860533 38650578 39040462 39070380
38500299 36830307 35830332 35660334
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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