546
ACUS11 KWNS 181709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181708
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-181915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL EASTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181708Z - 181915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL EASTERN
KENTUCKY, BUT WEAK WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER, A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WIND APPEAR POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE VERY MOIST/BUOYANT CONDITIONS
(MLCAPE IS ALREADY APPROACHING 3000 J/KG), MODEST MID-LEVEL WINDS
WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. BECAUSE OF
THIS, WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, THETA-E DEFICITS ON
THE ORDER OF 25-30 K ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES
SHOULD PROMOTE STRONG WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING/SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN TANDEM
WITH THE COVERAGE OF DISORGANIZED MULTICELLS.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 07/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
LAT...LON 38068373 37918319 37548293 37048288 36638304 36288345
36008404 35758497 35758578 35768635 35848685 36168723
36518749 36928755 37168748 37428723 37648640 38018448
38068373
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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