953
ACUS11 KWNS 181721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181720
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO WESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181720Z - 181915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO
WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, BUT WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST OF I-55 IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO WITHIN A DIFFUSE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK HEATING, WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO WESTERN KY. WEAK WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
9 KM WILL LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY AND PROMOTE
MAINLY MULTICELL CLUSTERS. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROBUST,
PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED. HOWEVER, MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 3500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS NEAR 14-15 KM, PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, AND THETA-E
DEFICITS NEAR 25 K WILL PROMOTE STRONG WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 07/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 38189121 37999061 37749010 37518948 37548871 37528830
37438788 37248766 36828764 36518781 36358815 36308881
36258948 36379014 36449090 36519130 36639159 36819182
37339219 37619229 37809231 38159213 38289165 38189121
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