650
ACUS02 KWNS 181729
SWODY2
SPC AC 181727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD
TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, AND
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
..MIDWEST
A CONDITIONAL AND COMPLEX SEVERE RISK IS FORECAST, BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN IA AND VICINITY. HERE, MODELS INDICATE
AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING, BUT WHETHER THIS SYSTEM PERSISTS
ACROSS IL AND IN DURING DAY IS UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY, THIS SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN, WHICH WILL ALLOW DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, REDEVELOPMENT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN DURING THE DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI/IL/IN, AND MAY DEPEND ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM
EARLIER STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
DEVELOP, AND CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL EXIST
BENEATH MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
MAY EVEN FAVOR SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL,
PERHAPS A TORNADO, AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO
INTO WESTERN IL.
FARTHER EAST AND LATE, WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 850 MB WILL AID
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS POSSIBLE FROM OH
INTO WESTERN PA AND NY. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR A STALLED FRONT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER, WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST WY AND
NORTHEAST CO. AFTERNOON STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THIS UNCAPPED AIR
MASS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL EXPECTED. CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN FARTHER EAST, BUT EVENTUAL
OUTFLOW PRODUCTION MAY ALLOW AN MCS TO DEVELOP WITH DAMAGING WINDS
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE.
..JEWELL.. 07/18/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page