457
ACUS11 KWNS 182217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182217
KSZ000-190015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182217Z - 190015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER IS PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION NOTED INTO PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL KS. A WEAK MCV IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, AND MAY
HELP TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
STORMS APPROACHING WICHITA HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF-BALL
SIZED HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK, MODEST VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20-30 KT, SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT STORM
ORGANIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF GREATER
THAN 3000 J/KG). THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD INTO EARLY EVENING MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, AND ALSO WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY.
..DEAN/HART.. 07/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37299812 38279837 39239763 39529700 39509623 39199596
38699591 37859649 37459685 37299732 37299812
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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