392
ACUS11 KWNS 191153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191153
WIZ000-MNZ000-191330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191153Z - 191330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG SUPERCELL DEVELOPED ACROSS MARATHON
COUNTY THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND SEVERAL
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE. THIS SUPERCELL DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG
THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (70-80 KNOTS AT 6-8KM PER AREA VWPS). RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SUPERCELL MAY WEAKEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GREEN BAY AREA. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING FARTHER
WEST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE STRONG SUPERCELLS, SIMILAR TO
THE LEAD SUPERCELL. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THAN THE ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORTED THE
EARLIER SUPERCELL WITH SIMILARLY STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE, IT IS AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS COULD
DEVELOP WITH A LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.
THE UNCERTAINTY AND RELATIVELY ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND START TO MOVE EAST (A LOW BUT NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY), A WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 07/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44308787 44398843 44558964 45099253 45569272 45689224
45849137 45649046 45208887 44908799 44678762 44448769
44308787
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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