476
ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE DAKOTAS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
..NORTHEAST
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC, WITH COOLING
ALOFT FROM NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, AND NEARING THE COAST
AROUND 00Z. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
MUCAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH 40-50 KT
MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES, RESULTING IN A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HAIL. AS STORM COVERAGE MAXIMIZES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, A FEW SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING GUSTS AS WELL.
..DAKOTAS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN COOL. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST MT INTO THE WESTERN SD/NE/KS,
WHERE HEATING WILL BE STRONG. MODERATE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY AND
MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD
CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SD, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY, ALONG WITH
AGGREGATING/SEVERE OUTFLOW/WIND.
..MID MS AND OH VALLEYS
ALTHOUGH WELL SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH, MODEST WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY, NEAR A STALLED
FRONT WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS. TALL/MOIST CAPE PROFILES WITH HIGH PWAT
SUGGEST SPORADIC MULTICELLUAR CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO KY/WV DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHER PROBABILITY CORRIDORS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES ON THE
MESOSCALE.
..JEWELL.. 07/19/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page