219
ACUS11 KWNS 191926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191925
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191925Z - 192130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
SHOW INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS AND FIRST SIGNS OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW-SURFACE FRONT IN WEST-CENTRAL NE. WHILE WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUED HEATING AMID RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS) SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A
LONG/MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (AROUND 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR)
AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS.
HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND INCREASING SRH WILL ALSO
FAVOR AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 07/19/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39610082 39830171 40310221 41250250 42210223 42670177
42800112 42790013 42629943 42119899 41389893 40069926
39649981 39610082
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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